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Page 97
The trackman was a person accustomed to the reality and not the
theory of things.
"I don't see how the accident would have been any different," he
said, "if somebody had put that tree in the right spot to catch
the coach; or timed the minute with a stop-watch to kill that
brakeman; or piled that wreck on the man so it wouldn't hurt him.
The result would have been just the same."
"The result would have been the same," replied Marion, "but the
arrangement of events would have been different."
"Just what way different, Miss Warfield?" said the man.
"We cannot formulate an iron rule about that," replied Marion,
"but as a general thing catastrophes in nature seem to lack a
motive, and their contributing events are not forced."
The big trackman was a person of sound practical sense. He knew
what Marion was after, but he was confused by the unfamiliar
terms in which the idea was stated.
"It's mighty hard to figure out," he said. "Of course, when you
find an obstruction on the track or a crowbar under a rail, or
some plain thing, you know."
Then he added:
"You've got to figure out a wreck from what seems likely."
"There you have it exactly," said Marion. "You must begin your
investigation from what your common experience indicates is
likely to happen. Now, your experience indicates that the rails
of a track sometimes spread under these heavy engines."
"Yes, Miss Warfield."
"And your experience indicates that this is more likely to happen
at the first rise of the synclinal on a grade than anywhere on a
straight track."
"Yes, Miss Warfield."
"Good!" said Marion, "so far. But does not your experience also
indicate that such an accident usually happens when the train is
running at a high rate of speed?"
"Yes, Miss Warfield," said the man. "It's far more likely to
happen then, because the engine strikes the rails at the first
rise of the grade with more force. Naturally a thing hits harder
when it's going . . . But it might happen with a slow train."
Marion made a gesture as of one rejecting the man's final
sentence.
"When you turn that way," she said, "you at once leave the lines
of greatest probability. Why should you follow the preponderance
of common experience on two features here, and turn aside from it
on the third feature?"
"Because the thing happened," replied the man, with the
directness of those practical persons who drive through to the
fact.
"That is to say an unlikely thing happened!" Marion made a
decisive gesture with her clenched fingers. "Thus, the inquiry,
beginning with two consistent elements, now comes up against one
that is inconsistent."
"But not impossible," said the man.
"Possible," said Marion, "but not likely. Not to be expected,
not in line with the preponderance of common experience;
therefore, not to be passed. We have got to stop here and try to
find out why this track spread under a slow train."
"But we see it spread, Miss Warfield," said the trackman with a
conclusive gesture.
"True," replied Marion, "we see that it did spread, under this
condition, but why?"
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