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Page 21
THE PERCENTAGES FORMED BY FAILURES AT EACH AGE ON THE POSSIBILITIES OF
FAILING AT THAT AGE AND TIME, FOR THE SAME PUPILS
Ages 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
% 36.6 38.0 37.9 40.9 40.8 41.2 41.3 42.0 42.7
[Footnote: These percentages are computed from the data secured in
Table I, as noted above.]
There is an almost unbroken rise in these percentages from 36.6 for age
13 to 42.7 for age 21. Not only do a greater number of the older pupils
fail, as was previously indicated, but they also have a greater
percentage of failure for the subjects which they are taking. It seems
appropriate here to offer a caution that, in reading the above
percentages, one must not conclude that all of age 14 fail in 38 per
cent of their work, but rather that those who do fail at age 14 fail in
38 per cent of their work for that semester. The evidence does not seem
to indicate that the maturity of later years operates to secure any
general reduction of these percentages. The prognostic value of such
facts seems to consist in leading us to expect a greater percentage of
failures (on the total subjects) from the older pupils who fail than
from the younger ones who fail. If it were possible to translate the
above percentages to a basis of the possibility of failure for all
pupils, instead of the possibility for failing pupils only, the
disparity for the different ages would become more pronounced, as the
earlier ages have more non-failing pupils. But this we are not able to
do, as our data are not adequate for that purpose.
4. THE INITIAL RECORD IN HIGH SCHOOL FOR PROGNOSIS OF FAILURE
For this purpose the pupil record for the first year, in reference to
failures, is deemed more adequate and dependable than the record for
the first semester only. Accordingly, the pupils have been classified
on their first year's record into those who had 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7
or more failures. Then these groups were further distributed into those
who failed 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7 or more times after the first year.
From such a double distribution we may get some indication of what
assurance the first year's record offers on the expectation of later
failures. Table VII presents these facts.
Table VII is read in this manner: Of all the pupils who have failures
the first year (805 boys, and 1,129 girls) 397 boys and 672 girls have
failures later, 105 boys and 130 girls have 1 failure later, 77 boys
and 98 girls have 2 failures later, while 68 boys and 63 girls have
seven or more failures later. The column of totals to the right gives
the pupils for each number of failures for the first year. The line of
totals at the bottom gives the pupils for each number of failures
subsequent to the first year.
The table includes 3,508 pupils, since those who did not remain in
school more than three semesters are not included (1,120 boys, 1,513
girls). Obviously, those who do not stay more than one year would have
no subsequent school record, and those remaining only a brief time
beyond one year would not have a record of comparable length. It seems
quite significant, too, for the purposes of our prognosis, that of the
2,633 pupils dropping out in three semesters or less only about 43 per
cent have ever failed (boys--46 per cent, girls--41 per cent). In
contrast to this, nearly 70 per cent (69.6) of those continuing in
school more than three semesters fail one or more times. Those who drop
out without failure, in the three semesters or less, constitute nearly
60 per cent of the total non-failing pupils (2,568), but the failing
pupils who drop out in that same period constitute less than 32 per
cent of the total who fail (3,573). This situation received some
emphasis in Chapter II and will be further treated in Chapter IV, under
the comparison of the failing and non-failing groups.
TABLE VII
SUBSEQUENT RECORD OF FAILURES FOR PUPILS FAILING 1, 2, 3, ETC.,
TIMES THE FIRST YEAR
FAILURES
OF 1ST FAILURES SUBSEQUENT TO FIRST YEAR
YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+ TOTALS
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