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Page 32
* * * * *
[Illustration: TRADE SURVEYS]
The salient features of the business situation this week afford every
encouragement to the promoters of new schemes and the pioneers in
industry. Among the additional factors which will stimulate trade and
business during 1890 are the following: The construction of fifty per
cent more railway mileage than was built last year; a very great
increase in lake tonnage; a large increase in inland water-way tonnage;
a very great increase in rolling-stock; a greater increase in locomotive
capacity than has been made during any one year in our history; greater
activity in house-building, and greater activity in the building of
shops and factories. Several other interesting features also deserve
mention, among them the very strong probability of the establishment of
a larger number of banks daring 1890 than were established during 1889
or any previous year; the more rapid expansion of the building and loan
association system, particularly in the newer States; the increase in
the output of the gold and silver mines of the West and Southwest; the
opening-up of valuable coal-beds in many localities, which will tend to
the establishment of little industries; a great increase in the area of
land devoted to agriculture. Speaking generally, the agricultural
interests will be stimulated. Speaking prophetically, it is very
probable that prices will continue to advance, but by infinitesimal
degrees. Speaking conservatively and in the light of recent experience,
it is safe to assume and assert that production will be evenly gauged to
consumptive requirements. Those who have kept a close eye upon the
operations of manufacturers in all the leading channels recognize one
very gratifying feature, and that is, that they are protecting
themselves against unwarranted and unexpected advances in the cost of
their raw material by making purchases for future requirements, ranging
from three to six months. Users of cotton and wool are largely doing
this; so are users of iron ore and iron and steel, as well as users of
lumber, stone, cement and building material generally. This general
policy of providing for legitimate future requirements is one of those
instincts which safely guide the commercial world out of danger into
safety. One fruitful source of panics in former periods of activity was
the failure of consuming interests to supply themselves with raw
material to complete their contracts. The business world has learned
wisdom from its experience, and is now quietly turning a corner and
wheeling into line safely early in 1890. The tanning interests of the
United States have pursued this course in their limited field. The boot
and shoe manufacturers, if they have not bought largely of raw material,
have, at least, taken such steps as will guarantee them against a sudden
advance. The clothing manufacturers have wisely purchased for their
future wants; in fact, in almost every avenue of activity this policy
has been pursued. The users of Lake ore have already bought five and
one-half millions of the seven or eight million tons of ore they will
want this year. The users of steel blooms and billets have bought so far
ahead that manufacturers are now declining to make further contracts,
excepting for very strong reasons. The Southern pig-iron makers are
debating with themselves whether they will accept orders for pig-iron to
be delivered next summer or wait a few months. Scores of illustrations
of this sort could be enumerated. In many quarters this policy is
believed to be an unwise one. Experience has shown it to be a safe one.
The iron industry, as a whole, is on a very permanent foundation.
Manufacturers are hurrying to complete new works; lumber manufacturers,
especially throughout the South, are stimulated to the greatest exertion
by two new causes: First, a strong demand throughout the North for the
superior lumber-mill products of the South; and second, a wonderful
expansion of local demand in the South arising from the new industries
there. The makers of nearly all kinds of machinery are busy with new
work, fully one-half of which is for delivery in the new Southern or
Western States. The manufacturers of steam-pumps, the manufacturers of
appliances for new fuel-gas processes, the builders of heavy machinery
for steam and electrical purposes, the manufacturers of
hoisting-machinery and of machinery for mining purposes, as well as of
machinery for general shop-use, have been booking more business since
the 1st of October than their present shop-capacity will allow them to
execute. Consequently, a general system of enlargement is in progress.
Contracts have been lately given out for the construction of machinery
to make machines of larger than usual dimensions. Our industries are
being reorganized, and instead of engines of five, ten or fifty
horse-power, engines of fifty to five hundred horse-power are now
common. Agricultural operations are conducted by the aid of machinery
upon a larger scale, and within the past six months a score or more of
establishments for the manufacture of agricultural implements have been
equipped with machinery, and facilities in the Western States, that
indicate more clearly than anything else can do the magnitude and scope
of our agricultural interests. Last year the rolling stock of the
railroads was increased by some 54,000 freight cars, but it is probable
that the additional orders this year will reach 100,000. The managers of
several of the Western railroad systems have decided to erect
repair-shops along their various systems, by which repair work and new
work can be more expeditiously and economically done. The springing up
of so many little industries along these new lines is creating local
markets for farm-products. Last year the opening of coal mines, to the
number of about sixty, promises a sufficient supply of coal to these new
communities at a low cost. These encouragements are stimulating the
outflow of population from the older States, and it is this outflow,
coupled with the better conditions for living in the West through the
development of industries, that is equalizing in such a healthy and
natural way the great manufacturing and agricultural forces. By this
growth of little industries, mechanical, mining and railroad, the
decline in the value of farm-products is checked, or possibly altogether
prevented; or, at least, the demand arising from this cause enables the
farmer to obtain the very best possible price for what he has to sell.
It is not out of place, at the opening of the year, to briefly direct
attention to these forces acting beneath the surface. The manufacturer
and merchant have nothing to fear from hidden destructive agencies.
During the past two or three years several threatening commercial evils
have arisen only to disappear by a self-correcting agency which seems to
develop itself at the right time. The merchants and manufacturers of the
New England and Middle States will find, this year, a much more valuable
market west of the Mississippi than last year. The increasing demand for
all kinds of raw material there during the past few months is a sure
indication of the growth of a great market for the shop-products.
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